Pay Attention

I know, I know. I just sent you a newsletter.

But I wasn't planning on sitting on this one until next week.

There's a lot happening right now, and the more I looked into it, the more I felt like this was worth talking about while it's still unfolding.

So here we are.

I went to the grocery store recently and had one of those moments at checkout.

The total popped up on the screen, and I looked back at what I actually bought.

That’s it?

My first instinct was to blame my wife, but there was one problem.

I picked out all the groceries myself. 😂

Nothing extravagant. Nothing that should make you question your financial decisions. Just normal food and normal household stuff.

I even wandered over to the Topps card aisle because I've been wanting to pull a Cooper Flagg rookie card.

Yeah... never mind.

$40 is the new $20 these days.

Apparently inflation has come for my hobbies too.

It's funny when you're talking about basketball cards. It's a lot less funny when you're talking about groceries.

A pretty ordinary trip to the store just doesn't feel very ordinary anymore.

And I know I’m not the only one feeling it. Everything costs more—food, electricity, gas, insurance—the normal expenses of running a household keep taking a bigger bite.

We've heard the word inflation so many times over the last few years that it's almost become background noise.

But there's nothing abstract about it when it's coming out of your bank account.

And the pressure we're already feeling at home may only be one piece of a much bigger picture.

The grocery store might be showing us the effects of the last few years of inflation, while new pressures are already building for tomorrow.

Prices don't have to jump another 20% overnight for that to matter. Once prices rise, slowing inflation doesn't mean they suddenly go back to where they were. We're still paying from a much higher starting point.

And now energy is getting hit again.

That matters far beyond what we pay at the pump.

Fuel moves tractors through fields and trucks down highways. Energy keeps processing plants and refrigeration running. It's part of producing fertilizer, manufacturing packaging and moving goods across oceans.

There are a lot of steps between a farm and the food sitting on a grocery-store shelf.

Every one of those steps costs money.

So when energy and transportation become more expensive, somebody eventually has to eat that cost—and there's a good chance part of it finds its way down to us.

Now, I’m no economist, and I’m definitely not pretending I can predict what happens next. I’m just paying attention to what’s happening and trying to connect the dots—several major energy and shipping routes are under pressure at the same time.

The Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted amid the conflict in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia's alternative route toward the Red Sea has faced disruption as well. And farther down that route sits the Bab el-Mandeb, another critical shipping chokepoint that has already dealt with instability and attacks.

One problem can be absorbed.

Two can make things uncomfortable.

But when enough pressure starts stacking across the same system, I think it's worth paying attention.

Not panicking.

Paying attention.

Start here at home.

The latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation running at 3.4% compared with a year ago. Groceries were up 2.2%.

But energy is where things really stand out.

Energy prices were 16.3% higher than a year ago, and gasoline was up 27.4%.

Those numbers matter even if you don't follow markets, because energy is woven into nearly everything we buy.

Now look overseas.

On Monday, preliminary tracking data recorded only four commodity-vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, the waterway typically handled approximately 125 large commercial-vessel transits per day.

Four.

This isn't some obscure stretch of water, either. Hormuz is one of the world's most important routes for moving oil and natural gas.

And the backup plan is under pressure too.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline was built to move oil across the country toward the Red Sea, allowing those barrels to bypass Hormuz. In recent months, it has carried roughly 4 million barrels per day.

It was recently damaged in an attack and temporarily shut down. Estimates for its return vary widely—from a possible restart within days to repairs lasting several weeks.

Meanwhile, food markets are beginning to show pressure of their own.

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reported that food commodity prices rose 1.9% in August alone and are now 2.5% higher than a year ago.

Their explanation caught my attention even more than the number.

Weather.

Conflict in the Middle East.

Disrupted trade routes.

Different headlines.

Same system.

And that's what I don't think we can afford to miss.

The grocery bill, the price at the pump, a damaged pipeline thousands of miles away and ships struggling to move through a narrow stretch of water can feel completely unrelated when you see them one at a time.

Step back far enough, though, and you start seeing the connections.

I'm not telling you I know what happens next.

I don't.

Maybe tensions cool. Maybe shipping improves. Maybe energy prices come back down.

I hope all three happen.

But if they don't, the average household isn't starting from zero.

We're already paying more.

We're already feeling the pressure.

And now additional pressure is building across the systems responsible for keeping energy and goods moving.

That’s why I think this matters.

That’s the part we can actually do something about.

I can't control what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. I can't repair a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. I can't control the price of oil, interest rates or what happens next in the Middle East.

But I can control what happens inside my own house.

Maybe this is a good time to look at the unnecessary expenses we've allowed to creep in.

Maybe it's a good time to attack some debt, build a little more breathing room and keep a reasonable amount of the things our families actually use on hand.

Not because the world is ending.

Because being prepared when things are calm is a lot easier than trying to get prepared when everyone else suddenly realizes there's a problem.

And I think there's an important distinction here.

Preparation driven by fear and preparation driven by wisdom can look similar from the outside, but they're coming from two completely different places.

One says, I need to control everything because I'm afraid of what might happen.

The other says, I know I can't control everything, so I'm going to be responsible with what I can.

Scripture speaks directly to that:

I've always liked how simple that is.

The prudent person doesn't know exactly what is going to happen.

He sees.

He recognizes.

And he acts accordingly.

Yahusha gave us another piece of this that feels especially relevant right now.

When His disciples asked Him about what was to come, He told them plainly:

Then He continued:

Read those words again.

“See that you are not troubled.”

That's the part I don't want to overlook.

Yahusha didn't tell them they wouldn't see troubling things.

He told them they would.

Wars.

Rumors of wars.

Nations rising against nations.

Famines.

And yet His instruction in the middle of all of it was not to be consumed by fear.

That's where I want to stand with everything happening right now.

I'm watching.

I'm preparing where it makes sense.

I'm taking care of what Elohiym has put in my hands.

But I'm not pretending I know exactly what happens next, and I'm not going to let every breaking headline convince me the sky is falling.

There is a difference between being watchful and being afraid.

Maybe that's the posture we need right now.

Keep your eyes open.

Take care of your household.

Use wisdom while things are still relatively calm.

And when the headlines get louder, remember the words Yahusha gave us:

See that you are not troubled.

Until next time,

Javier

Compounding Thoughts
What you practice today shapes who you become tomorrow.